I usually don’t care much about the noise in the CrossFit sphere anymore…
But a lot of my clients are affiliate owners, caught up in the echo chamber and struggling to make sense of it all, so here goes…
First, I should state: I owned two CrossFit affiliates and spent more than a decade of my life building these businesses.
(See photo of me napping on my gym’s floor in 2014 while opening our second gym, Spark CrossFit)
This was all before I launched Big Little Gyms in 2019, which is now an Inc. 5000 company that has served over 1500 gym owners and still growing.
Back then, I aligned with the contrarian approach to fitness that CrossFit was bringing to the market in the late 2000s. Not long after I found it, it changed my life.
It was underground, raw, and disruptive. It challenged the mainstream fitness industry, and for a long time, it was the best thing out there.
But things aren’t the same anymore.
CrossFit HQ is up for sale, the community is more fractured than ever. Some gym owners are sticking with it, while others are looking at derivatives or going independent.
While this may all seem chaotic, I’m going to attempt to make sense of it all with some frameworks I’ve learned over the years of studying brands and business — to help gym owners find clarity and make the best decision for their business.
The CrossFit Brand & The Gartner Hype Cycle – Why This Was Inevitable
What’s happening to CrossFit right now isn’t random—it’s part of a natural business cycle that every major movement experiences.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a framework that explains how new ideas rise and fall, and shows that all movements go through four stages. It tracks the evolution of disruptive ideas as they gain popularity, peak in hype, and then either stabilize or decline. Here’s how it applies to CrossFit’s movement:
🟢 1. Innovation Trigger (2000s): The Birth of CrossFit
CrossFit launches as an underground, countercultural movement that challenges traditional fitness models.
- Hardcore athletes, disruptors, and contrarians jump in, seeing it as a revolution in fitness.
🔺 2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (2010s): CrossFit Takes Over
CrossFit explodes into the mainstream, with rapid affiliate growth and cultural momentum.
- The CrossFit Games go on ESPN, bringing exposure like never before.
- CrossFit gyms open everywhere, and the brand dominates fitness conversations.
- The fitness industry takes notice—everyone either loves or hates CrossFit.
- Massive hype. People say, “This is the future of fitness.”
🔻 3. Trough of Disillusionment (Where We Are Now): The Fall Begins
As with any movement that reaches mass adoption, momentum slows, problems emerge, and fracturing begins.
- CrossFit HQ sells in 2020, signaling leadership uncertainty.
- Affiliate growth slows as more gym owners start questioning the value of the brand.
- The CrossFit Games decline in influence—once a major marketing vehicle, it no longer drives mainstream attention.
- Early adopters feel CrossFit has “lost its way.”
- Some gym owners look for alternatives—shifting toward independent models or exploring Metfix, WFP, or other methodologies.
📈 4. Two Paths Forward – Slope of Enlightenment OR Further Decline (Future)
At this stage, CrossFit has two possible futures:
👉 Reinvention & Stability: If CrossFit adapts, reinvents itself, and offers more value to affiliates, it could stabilize into a long-term fitness model.
👉 Fragmentation & Decline: If CrossFit fails to evolve, it will continue to fragment and fade into a legacy brand—joining the likes of P90X or Zumba as something people remember, but don’t actively follow.
Every movement experiences a hype phase and a reality check. The question is: Can CrossFit adapt before it’s too late?
The best move? Don’t play the odds. Take what works, ignore the noise, and build YOUR brand.
The Fracturing of CrossFit: Why New Models Like Metfix & WFP Are Emerging
As CrossFit finds itself at a crossroads, fragmentation is happening at full speed. When movements fracture, people instinctively start searching for the next big thing—whether it’s a new fitness methodology, a rebranded affiliate model, or an entirely new identity.
At the same time, detractors see an opportunity to capitalize on the division, launching their own initiatives to attract disillusioned gym owners. Two of the biggest names gaining traction in this space are:
- Metfix – A fitness methodology focused on longevity and health, but not a gym business model that is going to capture mainstream attention the way CrossFit did for young millennials who were looking for something different in the early 2010s. It’s really Greg Glassman’s well-intended passion project targeted at the broken health systems rather than a market-driven mass movement.
- WFP’s Fitness Project Initiative – A sports league trying to stay afloat by offering gym affiliations as a revenue source.
These are reactions to CrossFit’s struggles, but not solutions for gym owners looking to build sustainable businesses.
📉 The Case for CrossFit Declining into a Legacy Brand (60-70% Chance)
The more likely scenario, based on business trends and what happens to most movements, is that CrossFit continues its slow decline and becomes just another fitness brand that had its peak moment but is no longer a major force.
Warning Signs This is Already Happening:
🔻 Fragmentation is at Full Speed: Numerous alternative affiliate offerings (Metfix, WFP for example), franchises, and independent gym models are already pulling the market of owners away from CrossFit. Once people leave, they rarely come back.
🔻 Lack of Market Adaptation: CrossFit hasn’t evolved its business model, and unless the new ownership changes things drastically, it’s going to get left behind.
🔻 The CrossFit Games Are Less Relevant: A decade ago, the Games drove brand awareness and inspired new members. Today? The general public doesn’t care and even most gym owners don’t want to identify with the “Sport of Fitness”.
🔻 Other Functional Fitness Models Have Caught Up: Ten years ago, CrossFit was revolutionary. Now? Functional fitness is everywhere. Other brands and methodologies offer similar workouts with the community benefit, minus the baggage.
🔻 Economic Pressures & Market Saturation – Beyond the structural issues within CrossFit HQ, many affiliates are simply going out of business due to economic shifts that CrossFit hasn’t made effort to overcome:
- Higher costs for rent, wages, and operational expenses are squeezing small gyms.
- Consumer demand for CrossFit-style training is lower than it was a decade ago.
- Fewer new members are entering CrossFit gyms compared to their peak years.
- More affordable, accessible fitness options (like micro-gyms, personal training, and hybrid coaching models) are doing a better job marketing to the general public and are pulling prospects away.
For many gym owners, the CrossFit model simply isn’t as viable as it used to be, especially without major improvements in marketing, retention, and operational efficiency.
Over the last five years, several fitness trends have surged in popularity or made a comeback, pulling market share away from traditional CrossFit-style training. These trends have gained traction due to changing consumer preferences, better marketing, and shifts in the economy.
📈 Fitness Trends That Have Grown in Popularity (2019-2024):
1️⃣ Hybrid & Personalized Training Models (Biggest Shift)
👉 Hybrid coaching (combining in-person & online training) has exploded, with many people opting for flexible, customized programming they can do at home or at a gym.
👉 Personal training and semi-private coaching are thriving, especially as consumers prioritize customized programs over generalized group fitness.
👉 Subscription-based fitness apps & platforms (like Trainerize, Future, and Peloton digital) provide remote coaching, accountability, and workout tracking—without the need for a gym.
2️⃣ Strength Training & Bodybuilding Resurgence
👉 Traditional strength training & bodybuilding has made a strong comeback, fueled by Gen Z & Millennials’ focus on aesthetics over performance.
👉 More gym-goers are moving away from high-intensity functional training in favor of structured hypertrophy and powerlifting programs.
👉 The millennial population is aging and no longer wants to deal with the lengthy recovery and mobility work needed to excel at CrossFit.
👉 Functional bodybuilding has emerged as the perfect middle ground, allowing people to maintain functionality while looking the part—without the looming threat of overuse injuries.
👉 The rise of TikTok & Instagram fitness influencers has led to mainstream interest in old-school bodybuilding workouts, powerbuilding, and strength-based hypertrophy.
👉 24/7 gyms like EOS, Crunch, and Self-Made Training Facility are growing fast, providing affordable access to strength equipment without mandatory group classes.
3️⃣ Specialized & Boutique Fitness Concepts
👉 Instead of broad group fitness, highly specialized gyms, premium gyms, & boutique concepts have taken off, offering niche training models with stronger branding & community appeal.
👉 People are moving away from generalized, broad, and inclusive fitness models (like CrossFit) and toward highly specialized training programs with clear outcomes.
👉 MMA, boxing, golf fitness, basketball performance, and endurance training are attracting people who want purpose-driven, skill-based training while still offering a base of general physical preparedness without having to go elsewhere.
👉 Premium & high-end training models have boomed as the market recovered from shutdowns and the economy peaked. Consumers have been willing to pay more for high-quality, exclusive training experiences.
4️⃣ Athletic-Based Training & “Functional Bodybuilding”
👉 Concepts like functional bodybuilding (Marcus Filly), movement-based training (GOWOD, Knees Over Toes), and sport-specific training (basketball, MMA, golf fitness, etc.) are growing.
👉 People still want functional fitness, but CrossFit’s “train for the unknown” approach feels outdated compared to structured, measurable progress.
5️⃣ Longevity & Health-First Training (Growing but Niche)
👉 With Metfix, Knees Over Toes, Peter Attia, and the longevity-focused movement, health-first training has gained more traction, especially among Gen X & older Millennials.
👉 Recovery, mobility, and smart strength training are being prioritized over excessive intensity & burnout.
👉 While this won’t replace traditional gym training, it’s pulling people away from injury-prone programs like CrossFit and pushing them toward long-term sustainable fitness methods.
🚨 What This Means for CrossFit & Functional Fitness Gyms
👉 CrossFit-style training isn’t the dominant trend anymore.
👉 Group training still works, but structured, better-branded programs are outperforming CrossFit in marketing & retention.
👉 The demand for pure intensity has declined—people want results, but not at the expense of sustainability, recovery, or aesthetics.
What This Looks Like in the Future:
🚨 CrossFit gyms still exist, but the brand isn’t growing—it’s just “there.”
🚨 Fewer new affiliates. More gyms go independent or adopt alternative methodologies.
🚨 The CrossFit Games still run, but only diehard fans care.
🚨 Eventually, CrossFit HQ operates at a fraction of its former influence—like P90X or Zumba, a brand people remember rather than actively follow.
💡 Overall Odds?
Based on history, this is the most probable outcome unless CrossFit gets aggressive about reinvention.
📊 Estimated Probability: 60-70%.
Why This Is a Predictable Business Cycle
This type of industry shift is nothing new. Clayton Christensen’s book The Innovator’s Dilemma perfectly explains this phenomenon:
👉 When an industry matures, new disruptors emerge to take market share.
CrossFit once was the disruptor, breaking away from traditional gym models. But now, it has matured, stagnated, and is losing its early adopters—which opens the door for challengers.
- Metfix appeals to purists who feel CrossFit has strayed from its original mission.
- WFP is a last-ditch effort by Games athletes to sustain a competitive league as the “Sport of Fitness” declines in mainstream relevance.
But here’s the problem for gym owners:
❌ Neither of these are proven business models.
❌ Neither guarantee long-term success for an affiliate gym.
Metfix, while valuable in its methodology, isn’t built to be a movement that scales like CrossFit did. Glassman is tackling big-picture health issues, but this isn’t structured as a mass-market fitness revolution.
And even then, it’s important to remember how long it took for CrossFit to break into the mainstream.
- In 2005, almost nobody knew what CrossFit was.
- It wasn’t until 2012 that most markets had enough demand for CrossFit gyms to open and thrive without extensive marketing.
- That’s a 7-year timeframe, and even that level of explosive growth is extremely rare.
- Very few fitness brands ever experience mainstream fever the way CrossFit did.
Expecting Metfix or any other new methodology to have that same trajectory is unlikely—these movements are far more niche.
🔎 The Reality of Private Equity: Will CrossFit Be Saved or Stripped for Parts?
CrossFit has fallen into the hands of Private Equity, and when private equity firms buy a brand, they typically do so in one of two ways:
👉 Revitalization & Growth – They invest in the asset, scale it, and sell it at a profit. This would mean CrossFit gets a strong new leader, reinvents its business model, and finds a way to rebuild relevance in the fitness industry.
👉 Cash Extraction & Tax Write-Off – They squeeze every remaining dollar from the business, raise prices, strip it down for profit, and eventually take a loss at resale to reduce tax liability. This would mean CrossFit’s new owner maximizes short-term revenue from affiliates before the brand collapses further.
🔻 Right now, option #2 seems far more likely—and has kind of already happening.
- The CrossFit brand was reportedly purchased by Berkshire Partners for $200 million.
- Since then, the number of affiliates has shrunk from over 15,000 to an estimated 11,000.
- Meanwhile, affiliate dues have increased from $3,000 to $4,500 per year—a clear attempt to extract more revenue from a shrinking customer base.
If we do the math:
👉 11,000 affiliates x $4,500 per year = $49.5 million in recurring revenue.
👉 At a $200 million valuation, that’s roughly a 4x revenue multiple on a declining brand.
For context, a healthy, growing brand in the fitness industry might command a much higher multiple—especially one with strong intellectual property, media assets, or scalable growth potential.
But CrossFit is not growing—it’s shrinking. So unless Berkshire Partners finds a way to reverse the decline, this becomes a classic case of private equity trying to extract short-term profits before offloading the asset at break-even or a loss.
If more affiliates decide it’s no longer worth it, that $49.5 million in recurring revenue could collapse even further—leaving the brand with even fewer options for a profitable exit.
👉 And keep in mind, Berkshire Partners likely acquired CrossFit through a leveraged buyout (LBO), it’s how most PE deals are made, meaning they’re also paying interest on the debt used to acquire it.
👉 If they can’t flip CrossFit for a profit (which seems unlikely), the only way they make money is by squeezing cash flow from affiliates while they own it.
Keep in mind, these numbers are speculative—no one knows for sure. I’m just using them to try to make sense of the moves CrossFit has made.
In fact, I do think CrossFit’s reported affiliate numbers are inflated based on what I can calculate from the affiliate map on CrossFit’s own website. If that’s the case, the true financial picture may be even worse than it appears—and the decline could be happening even faster than most people realize.
I know this is a lot to keep up with, but this is the reality that most “insiders” aren’t talking about—and yet, it literally tells you where things stand and where they are likely headed.
Leadership can say all the right things to make affiliates feel good, but at the end of the day, they answer to a Private Equity CFO whose endgame is a successful exit—one way or another.
I’m Not a CrossFit Doomer—This is Just a Business Decision
Let me be clear: I’m not a CrossFit doomer, and I don’t believe every gym should rush to deaffiliate. This isn’t about loyalty or ideology—it’s just a business decision.
Being a CrossFit affiliate is nothing more than paying a royalty fee for a license to use the name. That’s it. There are no built-in systems, no marketing, no operational support—just the right to call your gym a CrossFit gym.
For that CrossFit affiliation, you pay $4,500 per year.
If you can clearly determine that you make a directly correlated monetary return on that investment—if being a CrossFit affiliate brings in at least $4,501 worth of value—then it absolutely makes sense to keep paying for it.
But if it doesn’t—and you no longer feel any deep loyalty to the brand—then there’s no reason to keep it.
This is not an emotional decision—it’s simple math.
✅ If the CrossFit name still drives traffic and adds clear financial value to your business, keep it.
❌ If it doesn’t, treat it like any other expense that isn’t generating ROI—and cut it.
At the same time, staying an affiliate doesn’t mean you have to limit your own branding.
I don’t believe that holding back from strengthening your own brand should come at an expense just to keep using CrossFit’s name.
There are many ways to stay affiliated, leverage the CrossFit brand, but remove it from your primary branding so you can build your own brand identity.
- You can stop using CrossFit in your gym’s headline branding while still leveraging it in certain ways.
- You can position yourself as a strength & conditioning gym, a functional fitness gym, or a performance training facility while keeping CrossFit as one of the methodologies you use.
- You can use CrossFit as a tool, not an identity—keeping your gym’s brand front and center.
The bottom line? Your brand should be bigger than CrossFit.
The future of functional fitness isn’t about who stays or leaves—it’s about who is building sustainable, thriving businesses that deliver results.
The Best Move for Gym Owners? OWN YOUR BRAND.
Regardless of whether or not you are affiliated, owning your brand gives you ultimate freedom.
Instead of choosing sides in a fractured community, gym owners should focus on:
✅ Building their own identity—instead of relying on another brand to define them.
✅ Taking the best ideas from Metfix, WFP, and CrossFit—without blindly affiliating.
✅ Delivering real, measurable RESULTS for members—because that’s what ultimately drives long-term success.
✅ Dialing in your marketing—because no brand affiliation can replace a consistent, effective strategy that ensures people can find you and become part of your community. (We see it everyday)
At the end of the day, what brand you affiliate with doesn’t matter nearly as much as the systems, community, and experience happening inside your gym—and your ability to market effectively so people can find you and become a part of it.
If you’re waiting for the next big movement to define your gym, you’re making a mistake. YOUR brand is the movement.
CrossFit will never be what it once was.
The future of functional fitness belongs to the gym owners who create great businesses—regardless of the name on the door.
